Planning for Uncertainty Over the Long Haul: Long Range Plans that Respond to Rapid Change

Interstate 83 in York County has attracted its fair share of the logistics industry already, with millions of additional square feet of warehouses in the development pipeline. Within this already challenging context, four municipalities just north of York City – Conewago, East Manchester, and Manchester Townships and Manchester Borough – face a particularly tough land use planning problem: how can a municipality comprehensively plan for changes in land use given two massive uncertainties: will a new interstate exit come to the area and if so, when?

In brief, these communities are using scenarios to plan for uncertainty. Each has recently adopted a cooperative I-83 Exit 26 Land Use Plan as an addendum to their respective comprehensive plans. As noted on the York County Planning Commission’s website, “The land use plan recommends municipal zoning updates to implement when and if Exit 26 is approved and funded, and after the project passes the environmental clearance stage. Rezoning sooner would be undesirable—it would allow development to occur prematurely, which would result in traffic congestion and safety concerns on roadways not yet improved to handle the increased traffic volumes.” The Exit 26 Plan looks at land use through 2050, which covers interchange completion and an initial 20 years of operation.

It’s worth noting that decision-making power lies in the hands of PennDOT and the Federal Highway Administration, which adds to uncertainty about costs, timing, and functionality at the local level. It’s also worth noting that this kind of scenario planning offers flexibility in planning for impacts of new technologies (drones, for example) as well as planning for boom-and-bust development cycles.

Another wrinkle is that this segment of Interstate 83 was largely constructed in the 1950s and does not meet contemporary design standards. The need for a new interchange along with overall design improvements are considered thoroughly in the I-83 Master Plan for Exits 24-28. The Master Plan recommends the construction of Exit 26 in stages, starting with a northbound off-ramp and building to a full diamond interchange. The Master Plan and comprehensive plan amendments can be accessed online.

While your community may not be facing logistics growth or even be near an interstate, communities everywhere are facing uncertainty. In these instances, building scenarios into comprehensive plans can be a powerful tool, particularly when neighboring municipalities address challenges collaboratively.